We hope you enjoy this week’s edition of KAWG E-News.
KAWG President provides testimony at farm bill hearing in Manhattan
Yesterday the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry held its first fieldhearing of the 115th Congress in Manhattan on the upcoming farm bill reauthorization at McCain Auditorium on the Kansas State University campus.
Ken Wood, president of the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers, provided testimony on the importance of crop insurance, trade and more. Wood was among 10 producers representing all Kansas commodities and hailing from all corners of the state.
To view the full hearing copy and paste this URL: http://www.agriculture.senate.gov/hearings/hearing-from-the-heartland-perspectives-on-the-2018-farm-bill-from-kansas
To read Wood’s testimony copy and paste this URL: http://www.agriculture.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony_Wood2.pdf
First Hollow Stem Update
Cattle should be removed from wheat pastures when the crop reaches first hollow stem (FHS). Grazing past this stage can severely affect wheat yields.
In order to screen for FHS during this important time in the growing season, the K-State Extension Wheat and Forages crew measures FHS on a weekly basis in 20 different commonly grown wheat varieties in Kansas. The varieties are in a September-sown replicated trial at the South Central Experiment Field near Hutchinson, in cooperation with Gary Cramer, Agronomist-in-Charge of the Field.
Optimal time to remove cattle from wheat pastures: First hollow stem
Average temperatures across the entire state of Kansas have been as much as 10°F warmer than the long-term normal, inducing early spring greenup by the wheat crop (Fig. 1). As wheat begins growing more rapidly with the warm temperatures we’ve had in Kansas so far this winter, producers should start thinking about when to pull cattle off pasture to protect grain yields. After greenup and growth is underway and before the wheat has reached jointing, it is important to scout fields closely for signs of the “first hollow stem” (FHS) stage. This stage occurs as the wheat switches from the vegetative stage to the reproductive stage of growth.
Market Analysis: WHEAT PRICE SITTING ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORT
Larry Glenn, market analyst for Frontier Ag, Oakley and Leffler Commodities, Augusta, provides market analysis for KAWG members. E-mail Larry at email@example.com.
This week’s price pattern turned sideways following a couple days of selling pressure to end the previous week. A weak close to end the week leaves a concern for bullish wheat traders. The low made on Tuesday, the first trading session for this week, is a major support point and could likely be approached next Monday. Remember, next Tuesday is the first notice day for delivery against the March grain contracts. Those holding long positon after Monday are subject to delivery. Thus, we will likely see long liquidation on Monday.
An annual event for the USDA is the Outlook Forum held during February. The USDA releases their first grain report for 2017. Reviewing their numbers, they expect 46 million acres of all wheat plantings. They project 39 million acres of harvest wheat acres. Oklahoma and Texas have the largest amount of abandonment wheat acres because of grazing. Their yield estimate of 47.1 bushels per acre compares to the 2016 number of 52.6. 2017 wheat production estimate at 1.837 billion bushels down from last year of 2.31 billion bushels. The bottom line, ending stock, is 905 million bushels which would be a drop of 234 million bushels. The decrease is a positive but 905 million bushels in wheat carry over is still a high number.
Winter weather returns to our southern plains this weekend. A pre-weekend moisture event traveled as far south as the northern tier of Kansas Counties. Cold temperatures move south into the Panhandles. Warm weather in mid-February allow for some wheat growth to start in our Southern Plains.
It is the time of year when wheat producers should put on their marketing cap. Opportunities will surface prior to harvest. Weather scares as wheat comes out of dormancy can provide a pricing opportunity. Be prepared. With the wide basis across most of the state of Kansas, consider using Hedge to Arrive Contracts.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS AN INHERENT RISK OF LOSS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADING FUTURES AND OPTION CONTRACTS EVEN, WHEN USED FOR HEDGING PURPOSES. PLEASE CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION BEFORE INVESTING IN FUTURES AND OPTION CONTRACTS. FUTURE’S TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. OPTIONS CAN AND DO EXPIRE WORTHLESS. IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION, YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MOST CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY AFFECT THE RESULTS.
Kansas Wheat Staff
Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers