Start of 2018 Presents Challenges for Wheat Market
Farm & Ranch Guide – 2/12/2018
After seeing some strength in the middle of January the wheat market has had a tough go of things during the past few weeks as a fair amount of selling put some pressure on the futures market. The local basis levels held steady but, nonetheless, the market did see most prices drop about 20 cents from the middle of the month and maybe down 30 cents from their highs in early January, according to Jim Peterson, marketing director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission. “As we flipped into the first week of February we’ve seen a little recovery,” Peterson said. “Fortunately for the Minneapolis market that $6 support level, at least for the time being, seems to have held which I think was pretty critical to preventing an even sharper sell-off.”
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French Wheat Export Outlook Cut Again, Pushing Stocks Higher
Successful Farming – 2/14/2018
Farm office FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the EU i 2017/18 for the fourth month in a row, pointing to stiff overseas competition and low prices that have made French farmers reluctant to sell. In cereal supply and demand data published on Wednesday FranceAgriMer pegged French soft wheat exports to non-Europea Union countries in the 2017/18 season to June 30 at 9 million tonnes, down from the 9.3 million tonnes estimated in January. FranceAgriMer warned last month that it could make further cuts to its non-EU export outlook because of competition fro Russia and Argentina.
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Wheat: A Bit of Light at the End of the Tunnel
Southwest Farm Press – 2/14/2018
Since mid-December, cash wheat prices have increased 80 cents. Of that, 65 cents was due to KC wheat futures contract price increases, and 15 cents was due to increases in the basis. At this writing, the cash wheat price at Burlington, Okla., is $4.14. The Perryton, Texas, cash price is $4.33. Wheat may be forward contracted for harvest delivery for $4.40 at Burlington and $4.55 at Perryton. For most producers, these prices are still below the cost of production.
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Global Wheat Market is Changing
All About Feed – 2/14/2018
The global wheat trade is changing. The Black Sea region countries are getting stronger on the world market. This is according to Rabobank analysts. The report: The brass tacks of the Black Sea wheat challenge, published by agrifood bank Rabobank states that global wheat production will reach a new record volume in 2017/18. A large part is due to the growth of production in the Black Sea region countries (BSR). Since the early 2000s already, BSR wheat has grown – from comprising less than 10% to making up 25% of global grain markets – and has been a significant contributor to the world being awash with wheat over the years. Main wheat producing countries in BSR are Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
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Soil-Borne Mosaic Virus Appears Early in NE Oregon Wheat
Capital Press – 2/14/2018
Scientists are cautioning wheat farmers in northeast Oregon about the early return of a pernicious, stunting disease that can reduce yields by as much as 41 percent. Christina Hagerty, an Oregon State University assistant professor and plant pathologist at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Research Center, said soil-borne wheat mosaic virus has arrived four weeks earlier than last year at a disease resistance nursery near Milton-Freewater, Ore. Already, Hagerty said she has met with five farmers about the virus and she expects more phone calls in the weeks to come.
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Uncle Sam Invests a Dollar in MAP and FMD to US Grains Council- Gets an Amazing $20 Back in Tax Revenues
Oklahoma Farm Report – 2/15/2018
Spending on overseas market development for U.S. feed grains and related products increased the value of those exports by an average of $1.71 billion per year from 2010 to 2014 and increased U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by an average of $5 billion per year, returning $19.76 for every $1 spent by taxpayers. Those were key takeaways from a review of the full economic value of the Council’s programs presented by Dr. Harry Kaiser, professor of applied economics and management at Cornell University, during the final day of the organization’s 15th International Marketing Conference and 58th Annual Membership Meeting in Houston.
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Rivals Outspending U.S. in Promoting Exports
Agri-Pulse – 2/14/2018
U.S. investment in foreign export promotion is way behind spending by the European Union and other rivals. That’s according to a study commissioned by the Wine Institute and other ag associations and funded by USDA’s Market Access Program. The analysis, by Informa Economics, found that several competing countries and the EU spent close to $1 billion in public funds on agricultural export promotion in 2016, outspending the U.S. 4 to 1. That’s an increase of 70 percent in real competitive public spending since 2011. U.S. public funding for the two largest agricultural export promotion programs is about $235 million per year and its real value has declined by 12 percent since 2011, noted the study, “An Analysis of EU and Other Selected Foreign Export Promotion Programs.”
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Source: U.S. Wheat Associates