February 23, 2018
- Much needed precipitation across the U.S. Southern Plains and a larger than expected USDA estimate for U.S. planted wheat area pushed wheat futures lower this week. CBOT March wheat lost 5 cents to $4.52/bu, KCBT fell 9 cents to $4.69/bu, and MGEX dropped 4 cents to $6.01/bu. CBOT March corn declined 1 cent to $3.66/bu and CBOT March soybeans added 15 cents to $10.36/bu
- Strong demand for freight and export capacity across the United States continues to support nearby export basis.
CBOT declared force majeure at corn and soybean shipping stations due to flooding on the Illinois River. The flooding has slowed empty barge movement and the smaller capacity increased barge rates for nearby contracts. Cold temperatures across the U.S. Northern Plains continues to slow rail freight, providing additional support to nearby export basis. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System is closed for the season and will reopen at the end of March. The Columbia-Snake River System will be closed for annual, planned maintenance Mar. 3 to 25, 2018.
- USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 328,900 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were within trade expectations of 250,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through Feb. 15, 2018, were 21.4 million metric tons (MMT), 12% behind last year’s year-to-date total. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 25.9 MMT.
- USDA forecasted 2018/19 U.S. wheat production at 50.0 MMT, up 5% from 2017/18 due to increased planted acres. U.S. 2018/19 wheat planted area is predicted at 18.8 million hectares (46.5 million acres), up 200,000 hectares (500,000 acres) from last year.
The Feb. 22 U.S. Drought Monitor reported moderate to heavy precipitation fell across the U.S. Southern Plains, providing the first measurable precipitation since October in the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. However, the recent precipitation was not enough to overcome long-term moisture deficits in those areas and drought condition ratings were left largely unchanged. The 5-day forecast expects additional precipitation in the drought-stricken areas, providing additional relief to the drought-stricken HRW-growing area.
- FranceAgriMer rated 85% of French common wheat in good to excellent condition, compared to 84% one week prior. Seventy-nine percent of French durum wheat is in good to excellent condition, down from 81% the previous week.
- The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture rated 37% of Ukrainian winter grains in good condition, compared to 50% last week. Forty-four percent of winter grains were in satisfactory condition, up from 37% one week prior.
Every Friday through the harvest season (May-October), U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) provides a Harvest Report. The report includes the week’s updates and comments on harvest progress, crop conditions and crop quality information for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and durum wheat.
|2017/18 Harvest Wrapped Up…
The 2017/18 U.S. wheat harvest is safely in the bins. To see the final quality of this year’s crop, click here to check out the 2017 Crop Quality booklet. Open the links, just to the right, to read the weekly reports ————->
“The weekly Harvest Report is a key component of USW’s international technical and marketing programs,” says USW Regional Vice President Mitch Skalicky. “It is a consistent and timely tool that buyers use to analyze U.S. wheat conditions.”USW also publishes the report in Spanish in Trigonoticias, distributed to Latin American wheat buyers and millers.
A new Commercial Sales report is published every Thursday documenting sales-to-date for the current marketing year compared to the previous marketing year at the same date. Data is sourced from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Weekly Export Sales Report.
Once per month, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) updates a graphic summary of USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The report includes a quick summary of factors affecting the global wheat market, historical information for all major wheat exporting countries/regions and a by-class summary of U.S. wheat supply and demand. The data may be used without permission, but attribution to USW and USDA is appreciated.
Projections are subject to change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
PowerPoint versions are available upon request.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates