Friday, April 27, 2018
- Short-covering and continued concern about hard red winter (HRW) crop conditions and spring and durum wheat planting progress supported wheat futures this week. Strong export sales also lent support. CBOT May climbed 32 cents to $4.95/bu, KCBT added 29 cents to $5.12/bu, and MGEX gained 6 cents to $6.06/bu. CBOT May corn finished up 13 cents at $3.89/bu and CBOT May soybeans closed 16 cents higher at $10.45/bu.
- High demand for U.S. corn continues to support export basis for wheat, which has to compete for freight and elevation capacity. With farmers in their fields, farmer selling has shut off and residual delays from the past also supporting export basis through June. However, buyers in Asia are on holiday, limiting export demand and pressuring export basis.
- USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 297,200 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were above trade expectations of (100,000) to 200,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through April 19, 2018, were 23.3 million metric tons (MMT), 16% behind last year’s year-to-date total. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 25.2 MMT.
- On April 23, USDA rated 31% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last week, and 37% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 13% of winter wheat has headed, behind the 5-year average of 19%. U.S. spring wheat planting is 3% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 25% on the same date. USDA noted planting in Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota had still not started.
- The Wheat Quality Council (WQC)S. Hard Winter Wheat Tour starts on Monday, April 30. Follow the tour on Twitter using hashtag #WheatTour18.
- Beginning in the May 10 report, USDA will add a new line to its world balance totals for wheat and rice to show global supply and demand after subtracting China to better reflect current production, consumption and trade trends.
- The April 26 Drought Monitor reported the U.S. Southern Plains received much-needed rain last week, though the drought-affected areas generally received an inch or less. Additional rain fell across portions of the central and southern Plains after the cutoff time for this week’s map, and will be reflected next week. Still, topsoil moisture was rated 64% short to very short in Kansas, 53% short to very short in Colorado and Oklahoma and 67% short to very short in Texas. Both daily-record highs and lows were recorded last week in Kansas, the impacts of which will be assessed next week on the annual WQC U.S. Hard Winter Wheat Tour. Forecasts expect another storm to hit the U.S. Northern Plains with rain and snow, further delaying spring planting progress. There is also a chance for additional rain to fall on the dry HRW-growing areas.
- FranceAgriMer rated 77% of French common wheat in good to excellent condition, compared to 78% good to excellent the week prior.
- StatsCan forecast Canadian 2018/19 wheat planted area to reach 25.2 million acres (10.2 million hectares) supported by sharply higher durum and spring wheat area. If realized, that would be up 13% year over year.
- Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, expects Argentine farmers to plant 14.6 million acres (5.9 million hectares) of wheat in 2018/19. If realized, that would be up 3% from the year prior.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Index climbed to 1375, up from 1281 last week.
- The Dollar Index climbed to 91.66, its highest point since January 10.
Source: US Wheat Associates