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U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report

U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report

Friday, May 1, 2018

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  • Slight improvements in winter wheat crop conditions, early harvest progress, good planting progress in the Northern Plains and weakness in corn and soybeans pressured U.S. wheat futures down this week. Lower wheat production forecasts for the Black Sea region probably limited losses. CBOT July wheat lost 20 cents to close at $5.23/bu; KCBT July wheat dropped 24 cents to close at $5.40/bu; MGEX July wheat lost 37 cents to close at $6.07. CBOT July corn lost 15 cents to $3.91/bu and CBOT July soybeans dropped 20 cents to $10.21/bu.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 29,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2017/18 marketing year were 23.7 million metric tons (MMT), 16 percent behind last year’s year-to-date total of 28.2 MMT. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 24.8 MMT. Net wheat sales for delivery in 2018/19 of 270,900 MT were within trade expectations.
  • On May 30, USDA rated the winter wheat crop 38 percent good to excellent, up 2 percentage points from a week ago and 35% of the winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. Much of the HRW crop in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas remains in poor or very poor condition. HRW harvest moved into south central Oklahoma this week. Harvest is 29% complete in Texas and 15% in Oklahoma. Rain delayed the SRW harvest. U.S. spring wheat planting moved forward rapidly to 91% complete, now ahead of the 5-year average pace; 63% of spring wheat has emerged, which is slightly behind the 5-year average of 68%.

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • The May 31 U.S. Drought Monitor reported additional rain in northwest Kansas, but severe to exceptional drought ratings remain for much of the southern and central High Plains. Very high temperatures accelerated crop maturity in the region. Conditions are much better in Nebraska and northeast Colorado HRW regions. Dryness remains a concern in parts of the Northern Plains, especially western North Dakota. Conditions in the Pacific Northwest remain very good overall. The current forecast expects widespread rain across the eastern United States and parts of the Northern Plains.

  • Much of Europe’s wheat remains in good conditions but dryness is a growing concern in Germany and Eastern Europe.
  • Ukraine’s winter wheat harvest is forecast to decrease to 24.0 MMT, down from 25.4 MMT the previous year, due to extremely dry weather this spring. Average winter wheat yields will decrease to 56.5 bushels per acre (3.8 tons/hectare), compared to 61.0 bushels per acre (4.1 tons/hectare) in 2017.
  • The Russian winter wheat crop is expected to decrease 10 percent this year due to dry weather. The Russian Agriculture ministry reports there are ample carryover stocks. Dry weather damaged winter wheat in part of Russia’s southern regions such as Rostov, Volgograd and Krasnodar.

Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices

  • The Baltic Index was up 47 points to 1,156 points from last Friday’s close.
  • The Dollar Index was basically unchanged this week, ending at 94.22.

Source: U.S. Wheat Associates