Have Wheat Prices Bottomed? Kim Anderson Says We Won’t Know Until Southern Harvest is Done
Oklahoma Farm Report – 8/30/2018
Wheat prices are again on the decline this week as OSU Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson joins SUNUP for another grain market report. Anderson attributes this downward movement in the market to two things- Russia’s frontloaded export sales this year that have flooded the global marketplace and a two million bushel increase in the US spring wheat harvest. Anderson says the extra spring wheat will be used to blend low-quality HRW, which saw lower production this year. By doing this, more wheat stocks will be available for the market which has resulted in increased supply pressure that has translated into decreased prices.
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Concerns Over Less Milling Wheat Pose Headache for Ukraine, Russia
Reuters – 8/30/2018
Ukraine and Russia may have less milling wheat than previously expected this year after rain during harvesting hurt the quality of crops, potentially accelerating any curbs on exports from the Black Sea exporters, traders and analysts said. Kiev and Moscow have said there is no need to impose restrictions on wheat exports for now, but their agriculture ministries are closely monitoring activity of the main exporters for the 2018/19 marketing season. There are fears that strong milling wheat exports may help drive up the cost of bread in both countries where weak domestic currencies and poor crops have already inflated food prices.
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Wheat Pricing Needs to Wait
Western Producer – 8/30/2018
The best wheat prices will likely occur in the second half of the 2018-19 marketing year, say analysts. A rumour surfaced on Aug. 17 that Russia’s agriculture ministry was considering curbing exports once they reached 30 million tonnes. That caused a spike in international wheat prices, but prices quickly came back down after Russia’s agriculture minister denied the report. “So far there is no basis for the introduction of a grain export duty. The current price is not extraordinary,” Dmitry Patrushev was quoted as saying in a Reuters story.
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U.S. Wheat Growers Have Trump’s Ear on Old Canada Gripe
Reuters – 8/31/2018
Gordon Stoner, who grows wheat in Montana about a mile from the Canadian border, would like to sell his wheat to grain elevators in nearby Saskatchewan. But due to a quirk in Canadian law, the high-protein variety he raises would be automatically downgraded by government inspectors to the lowest possible category – fit for animals only – regardless of its quality.
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U.S., Canada Make Late-Night Push for NAFTA, no deal yet
Reuters – 8/30/2018
Top NAFTA negotiators from Canada and the United States wrapped up a third day of two-way talks on Thursday, agreeing to meet the next day to resolve final differences before a deadline, with Mexican counterparts on standby to rejoin negotiations. Despite some contentious issues still on the table, the increasingly positive tone contrasted with U.S. President Donald Trump’s harsh criticism of Canada in recent weeks, raising hopes the year-long talks to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will conclude soon with a trilateral deal.
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Insects Could Eat Twice As Much Wheat By the End of the Century
OPB – 8/30/2018
Climate change might lead to bigger populations of hungrier insects. This could have serious consequences for grain-growing regions in the Northwest and across the world. “And, of course, the impacts from these insects will come on top of whatever effect climate change is already having,” says Curtis Deutsch, an earth scientist at the University of Washington. The paper, which Deutsch wrote with an interdisciplinary team of scientists, was published Thursday in the journal Science. The researchers looked at the world’s three top grains: wheat, corn and rice. Based on their model, for each 2 degrees Celsius the temperature rose, the amount of crops consumed by bugs would increase significantly: by 19 percent for rice, 31 percent for corn and by 46 percent for wheat.
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Source: U.S. Wheat Associates