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Maltby Marketing News for September 17

Maltby Marketing News for September 17

Kansas Association of Wheat Growers

September 17 Dan Maltby Marketing Newsletter

Hello Kansas Wheat.

New Bearish fundamental inputs from the September WASDE update released late last week were expected in wheat, but nobody expected the huge jump in national corn yield again, following last month’s increase. This table shows how the USDA’s corn yield and production estimates have changed through the summer:

The weather must have been better than it seemed, so we have an extra 800 million bushels compared to initial estimates.

I guess it could have been worse. This year’s planted corn acres are 89.1 million, with harvested acres estimated at 81.8 million. If we would have planted 94.0 million corn acres, and harvested 86.7 million acres, like we did in 2017/17, with this 181.3 bu yield, USA production could have been 15.7 billion…(!)

Bearish wheat fundamentals included a 3 million tonne increase in Russian wheat production, which offset a 2 million tonne lower Aussie estimate and 1 million tonne cut in the Canadian estimate, BUT India’s production estimate was increased 2.7 million tonnes. Thus… world wheat carryout increased.

The USDA semi-acknowledged the slow pace of USA wheat exports by decreasing the USA HRW export estimate by 20 million bushels, although to hide it, they raised the spring wheat export estimate by 10 million bu, and the SRW and SWW estimates by 5 million bu each.

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Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers