August 31, 2018
- Technical buying and lower than expected Canadian wheat production pushed wheat futures higher this week. Continued strength in the U.S. dollar limited gains. CBOT and KCBT September wheat increased 4 cents each to $5.18/bu and $5.23/bu, respectively. MGEX rose 11 cents to $5.84/bu. CBOT September corn added 2 cents to close at $3.51/bu and CBOT September soybeans declined 9 cents to $8.33/bu.
- Seasonal harvest pressure continues to weigh on hard red spring (HRS) nearby export basis across the United States. Nearby export basis for hard red winter (HRW) firmed this week supported by limited farmer selling and increased demand following the break in futures.
- USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 414,800 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year were 8.97 million metric tons (MMT), 26% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 12.1 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
- On August 27, USDA reported winter wheat harvest is complete. USDA reported U.S. spring wheat harvest is 77% complete, ahead of the 5-year average pace of 61%.
- The August 30 U.S. Drought Monitor noted lower than average temperatures across eastern Montana and western North Dakota slowed drought development, while above average temperatures across Texas worsened drought conditions. Continued dry conditions enabled harvest to progress rapidly across the U.S. Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest (PNW), but worsened drought conditions in the PNW. The current forecast shows some chances of rain across the drought-stricken regions, but also expects above average temperatures.
- StatsCan forecast 2018/19 Canadian total wheat production at 29.0 MMT, down 3% from 2017/18 due to hot, dry weather that hurt yields.
- The European Commission decreased its forecast for European Union (EU) common wheat (excluding durum) production to 129 MMT, down 9% from the year prior. The Commission also cut its projection for EU common wheat exports to 20.0 MMT, down from 21.3 MMT exported in 2017/18.
- The Saskatchewan weekly crop report noted winter wheat harvest is 78% complete, up from last week’s 57% complete. Durum harvest is 32% complete, and spring wheat harvest is 16% complete. Spring wheat harvest is 8% complete, behind the 5-year average pace.
- Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, rated 85% of Argentine wheat in normal to excellent condition, down from 89% normal to excellent last week.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Index decreased to 1614, down from 1697 the week prior.
- The Dollar Index fell to 95.12 this week, down slightly from 95.15 last week.
Source: U.S. Wheat Assocaites