September 28, 2018
- U.S. wheat futures ended the week down as commercial traders liquidated positions and USDA reported larger than expected U.S. wheat production for 2019. Higher export sales cushioned the decline. CBOT December wheat futures ended the week down 13 cents at $5.09/bu, KCBT December was down 14 cents to $5.12/bu and MGEX shed 10 cents for the week to $5.73/bu. CBOT December corn futures also declined a penny to $3.57/bu and CBOT January soybeans lost 2 cents to $8.60/bu.
- With farmer selling slow because of good winter wheat planting weather and sagging prices, export basis stayed generally steady to down for Gulf contracts. Pacific Northwest export basis also remained fairly steady
- USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 657,100 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year, through September 20, 2018 were 10.9 million metric tons (MMT), 20% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 13.5 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
- With all but a very few fields on northern durum left to harvest, growers are actively seeding winter wheat. At 28% complete by Sept. 24, seeding is slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Hard red winter states have seeded 40% USDA’s total estimate, soft red winter states are just getting in the fields, and Pacific Northwest seeding, in dry conditions are all ahead of the 5-year seeding pace.
- The Sept. 27 U.S. Drought Monitor shows some improvement in soil moisture in the southern and central Plains, with exceptions in the Texas Panhandle. Dry conditions remain challenging in the far northern Plains and significantly so throughout the Pacific Northwest.
- Cold and wet conditions in Canada’s western provinces continue to delay the spring wheat harvest. In Alberta, harvest progress is down 23.4 points over last year at this time and the provincial government said given the conditions there, wheat quality may be reduced for acres still out in the field. Harvest progress is farther along in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
- Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, reported a 100,000-hectare uptick in seeded wheat area because of good moisture in June and July. That would be an 8% increase year over year in Argentina. The exchange also reported continued dry conditions in the north that may hurt yield potential there.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Index continues to climb, reaching 1540 on Sept. 28, up from 1396 last week
- The Dollar Index rose this week to 95.14, up from 93.96 last week
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates