November 16, 2018
Due to the U.S. holiday, there will not be a Price Report on November 23, 2018. Price Report will resume on November 30, 2018.
- Technical buying and short-covering lifted CBOT futures higher this week, while a strengthening U.S. dollar and improving crop conditions pressured KCBT and MGEX lower. CBOT December wheat futures closed up 5 cents at $5.07/bu. KCBT ended down 5 cents at $4.83/bu, and MGEX decreased 4 cents to $5.71/bu. CBOT December corn fell 5 cents to $3.65/bu and CBOT January soybeans added 5 cents to $8.92/bu.
- Continued export demand and limited farmer selling supported export basis for all wheat classes across the United States this week. The Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Seaway System will close for the season on December 31, 2018 and will re-open in March 2018.
- USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 438,300 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year were 14.2 million metric tons (MMT), 15% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 16.8 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
- On November 13, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting is 89% complete, behind the 5-year average of 94%. Winter wheat is 77% emerged, behind the 5-year average of 83%. USDA rated 54% of winter wheat in good to excellent condition, up from 51% the week prior.
- The November 14 U.S. Drought Monitor reported cold, wet conditions occurred across most of the United States, improving soil moisture conditions but slowing fall planting. The Pacific Northwest (PNW) received limited moisture this week. Currently, 86% of Oregon is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions. Wheat growing areas in Washington and Idaho are also abnormally dry or experiencing a moderate drought. The forecast shows little relief for the PNW with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation expected.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Bolsa de Cereales, reported Argentine wheat harvest is 16% complete, up from 12% complete last week.
- FranceAgriMer rated 82% of French wheat in good to excellent condition, compared to 97% at the same time last year. The lowest condition ratings came from Northern France due to severe drought conditions. FranceAgriMer reported French common wheat planting is 92% complete, up from 85% the week prior but slightly behind last year’s pace.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Index plummeted to 1,020, down 11% from last week and the lowest point since April 2018.
- The Dollar Index decreased slightly to 96.85 this week from 96.90 last week.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates