April 18, 2019
- All wheat futures prices fell significantly week over week on the news of favorable growing conditions and large expected harvests in most of the world’s top wheat-exporting regions (see below). May soft red winter (SRW) futures lost 20 cents from last week to close at $4.44/bu and hard red winter (HRW) futures lost 14 cents to end at $4.20/bu. May hard red spring (HRS) futures fell 10 cents from last week to close at $5.23/bu. CBOT May corn futures lost 2 cents to close at $3.58/bu. CBOT May soybean futures fell 15 cents to end at $8.80/bu.
- HRS and HRW export basis and soft white wheat export prices for May delivery out of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are unchanged week over week as limited farmer selling offset minimal export demand for all classes. Improved rail transportation logistics and reduced export demand pressured HRW export basis for May and June delivery out of the Gulf.
- USDA’s April 15 Crop Progress report rated 60% of U.S. winter wheat in good or excellent condition, unchanged from last week but well above last year’s estimate of 31%. U.S. spring wheat planting is 2% complete, below the 5-year average of 13%.
- This week, net commercial U.S. wheat sales of 318,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2018/19 were up 16% from last week’s 273,000 but down 28% from the estimated previous 4-week average. Year-to-date commercial sales of 24.9 million metric tons (MMT) make up 97% of USDA’s expected 2018/19 export volume of 25.7 MM.
- In addition to net and total commercial sales for 2018/19 delivery, USDA also reported net sales of 228,000 MT for delivery in 2019/20.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- The April 16 Drought Monitor reported heavy snowfall across South Dakota and moderate precipitation across most of northern Montana. Ample rainfall and late-season snowmelt reduced “abnormally dry” conditions in the soft white wheat-growing regions of central Washington. Looking ahead, heavy rains are forecast in the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley which could impact inland barge transportation logistics. Light rainfall and above-average temperatures are expected across most of the Plains in the coming week.
- Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported spring wheat sowing at 148,000 hectares as of April 15, 89% of the final forecast for 2019.
- SovEcon, Russia’s agriculture consultancy, raised its estimate for 2019 wheat production from 80.0 MMT to 83.4 MMT on favorable planting conditions.
- According to Reuters, Germany’s association of farmer cooperatives expects 2019 wheat production to increase 21% year over year to 24.4 MMT on more beneficial weather conditions compared to last year’s drought.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index jumped 9% from last week to close at 790.
- The Dollar Index increased slightly from last week’s 96.97 to 97.47.
- U.S. markets will close on Friday, April 19, 2019 in observance of Good Friday. All data in this Price Report reflect global and domestic market conditions as of April 18, 2019.
- Correction to the April 12, 2019 Price Report: French common (non-durum) wheat production in 2019 is forecast at 144 MMT, up 14% from last year. Previously, the Price Report referred to common wheat as “soft white wheat.”
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates