Cautious EU Wheat Market Assess Hot Weather
Paris wheat futures ended slightly lower on Wednesday after a hesitant session as traders looked ahead to a key U.S. planting report later this week and sought clearer indications of the impact of a heatwave in western Europe. Front-month September milling wheat on the Paris-based Euronext settled 0.75 euro, or 0.4%, lower at 182.75 euros ($207.97) a tonne. Euronext futures were consolidating below three-week highs touched on Tuesday. Chicago wheat turned higher in U.S. trading as investors adjusted positions before the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s planting estimates on Friday, while also factoring in a lower than expected wheat planting estimate in Canada. Friday’s USDA acreage report is drawing particular attention after torrential rain this spring disrupted planting of corn and soybeans. “We expected there to be a bit of consolidation. The question is whether the market has the impetus to move higher again before Friday’s USDA report,” a futures broker said. European traders were monitoring a heatwave as temperatures approached 40 degrees Celsius in parts of France and Germany. There was the risk of yields being reduced for some crops, but an easing of temperatures by next week was expected to avert significant damage. “It’s never good to have weather extremes but I don’t think yields are going to drop by 10%,” a French physical broker said. “If you said the heatwave was going to last two weeks that would be another story.”
Russia Wheat Crop Seen at 81.7 MLN T, Weather Stress Limited
Reuters – 06/26/2019
Wheat production in Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the cereal, is expected to be 81.7 million tonnes this year, up 13% compared with 2018, as hot, dry conditions this month have had a limited impact on yields, French consultancy Agritel said. The forecast, following a field tour in southern Russia on June 10-14, was above Agritel’s initial Russian wheat harvest estimate of 79.2 million tonnes published in April. “Despite the hot and dry weather that settled in June, we believe that this phenomenon should not have a significant impact on the final yield since wheat already reached the ripening stage,” Agritel said in a note on Wednesday. Some analysts have trimmed their expectations for Russia’s wheat harvest in light of the recent hot, dry spell. Agritel said it expected the average yield for winter wheat in Russia to reach 4.03 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up 11% from last year and close to a record 4.17 t/ha in 2017. For spring wheat, it projected a yield of 1.67 t/ha on the basis of a long-term trend, saying it was too early to make firm forecasts and weather in the coming weeks would be important.
Cereals Expert Concerned About Fall Wheat Frost Damage in Southern, Eastern Idaho
Idaho State Journal – 06/25/2019
Winter wheat fields throughout Southern and Eastern Idaho may have sustained significant damage from recent early morning frosts, a University of Idaho Extension cereals pathologist warned. Juliet Marshall said she’s received calls from concerned growers from Aberdeen through Idaho Falls about how consecutive mornings of freezing temperatures from June 16-18 may have affected winter wheat kernels. Marshall said she’s seen a field of Timothy grass west of Aberdeen that sustained frost damage, and winter barley in Magic Valley also likely sustained damage.”We are concerned about the winter wheat, and potentially some of the more advanced spring wheat,” Marshall said, adding grain fields in higher elevations are especially vulnerable. Marshall explained wheat is most susceptible to frost damage at flowering, when the anthers are developing. Marshall said it should become apparent within the next two weeks whether or not growers have good seed set. “I think we’re right in a bad spot for some of the earliest maturing varieties,” Marshall said. During recent visits to growers’ fields, Marshall has seen bleached and dead awns, which are the beards of wheat and barley plants that emerge first and are often a good predictor of frost damage. “The frost has damaged some of the crops. We’ve seen some tip burns on the awns and some unfilled kernels within the head,” Marshall said
Crop Progress Report June 26, 2019
North Dakota Wheat Commission– 06/26/2019
The U.S. spring wheat crop dropped slightly in overall ratings, compared to the previous week. As of June 23, 75 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, compared to 77 percent the previous week, and 3 percent poor to very poor compared to 2 percent. The sharpest drops were in Montana and western North Dakota where moisture stress was becoming more evident with lack of significant rains at the time of the report. Conditions improved slightly across South Dakota with the drier weather pattern being favorable for that part of the region. Since the release of the report, some beneficial rains have fallen across the drier northern portions of the HRS region, but additional and more frequent rains will be needed, as temperatures are forecasted to reach in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s later this week. Crop development continues to run behind average with just 7 percent of the U.S. HRS crop headed, well behind the 2018 pace of 30 percent and the five-year average of 29 percent. Development is most advanced in Minnesota with 14 percent headed, followed by South Dakota at 10 percent, and 2 percent in North Dakota. All states are about ten days behind in development, but the forecasted warm up in temperatures should accelerate development compared to recent weeks.
Wheat Harvest Moves Quickly Forward with Oklahoma Wheat Commission Calling Crop Now 58% Harvested
Oklahoma Farm Report – 06/26/2019
The 2019 Oklahoma Wheat harvest has made great progress the last couple days in most regions with producers being thankful for the drier weather. Combining is wrapping up in many parts of Southwest Oklahoma, with harvesters continuing in Central and Northern regions of the state. Harvest has progressed slower in southern central regions around the Chickasha, Union City and El Reno area. It has also been hard for producers to make progress around the Tonkawa, Ponca City, Kildare, Blackwell areas. In the far Northeast regions located by Afton and Miami, they have also been struggling at getting a good start due to the excessive moisture and light rains received the past couple days. The quality of the crop as well as yields continue to surprise farmers given all the moisture it has received during this harvest season. Test weights have dropped in Central and Northern regions across Oklahoma. Based on reporting from elevator managers and producers across the state, it is looking like the statewide average on test weights will be in the 57 lb. to 59 lb. per bushel range. Yields being reported across the state also have been favorable with several reports of wheat making in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. We have also heard of some extremely good yields around the Bison, Waukomis, Enid areas, as well as in Goltry and Helena.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates