August 23, 2019
- U.S. wheat futures prices ended mixed week-over-week as technical buying supported soft red winter (SRW) September futures while harvest progress pressured hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) futures. September SRW futures gained 4 cents over last week to close at $4.75/bu. September HRS futures lost 7 cents to end at $4.98/bu and HRW futures fell 3 cents to close at $3.91/bu. CBOT corn futures lost 11 cents to end at $3.59/bu. CBOT Soybean futures lost 24 cents to close at $8.43/bu.
- Increased farmer selling pressured Gulf and Lakes HRS export basis and Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRW export basis and soft white (SW) wheat export prices for September deliveries. Minimal farmer selling increased PNW HRS export basis for nearby and deferred deliveries.
- On August 19, USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 93% complete compared to 97% last year and the 5-year average of 98%. U.S. spring wheat harvest is 16% complete compared to 56% last year and the 5-year average of 49%. USDA reported 70% of U.S. spring wheat in good to excellent condition, compared to last week’s 69%.
- Net U.S. wheat sales as of August 15 of 595,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2019/20 were 29% more than last week’s 462,000 MT and above trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales of 10.4 million metric tons (MMT) are 22% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA currently forecasts 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports will total 26.5 MMT, 4% more than 2018/19, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- For the week ending August 20, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported minimal rainfall across the High and Northern Plains, and expanded areas under abnormal dryness in eastern Nebraska. Some rainfall in west central North Dakota alleviated areas under abnormal dryness but slowed HRS harvest. Looking ahead, cool temperatures and average rainfall is expected across the central United States.
- According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture, by August 18, the Ukrainian wheat harvest is 99% complete at 28.2 MMT, up 14% from 2018/19 on favorable growing conditions and increased yields. UZA, Ukraine’s grain traders’ union, expects Ukrainian wheat exports to reach 21.0 MMT in 2019/20 compared to 15.3 MMT in 2018/19.
- On August 19, Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture reported the country’s total grain harvest at 45% complete. USDA estimates Russian wheat production will total 73.0 MMT in 2019. Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates the country’s 2019/20 wheat harvest now totals 53.7 MMT.
- According to Stratégie Grains, soft (non-durum) wheat harvest is nearly complete in most southern European countries. French soft wheat production is expected to reach 39.1 MMT in 2019, 16% more than 2018 levels despite numerous summer heatwaves. German soft wheat production is expected to jump 16% over last year to 23.3 MMT in 2019. Total European Union (EU) soft wheat production is expected to reach 143 MMT, 13% more than last year, if realized.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index rose 3% from last week to end at 2,118.
- U.S. Dollar Index climbed from last week’s 98.15 to close at 98.44.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates