August 30, 2019
- Ample global supplies pressured all wheat futures prices week-over-week. Soft red winter (SRW) December futures fell 15 cents to close at $4.62/bu and hard red winter (HRW) futures fell 7 cents to end at $3.97/bu. Hard red spring (HRS) December futures lost 18 cents to close at $4.97/bu. CBOT December corn gained 2 cents to end at $3.70/bu. CBOT January soybean futures fell 11 cents to close at $8.82/bu.
- Limited farmer selling supported Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRW export basis while decreased rail rates pressured Gulf HRW export basis for September and October deliveries. Limited farmer selling offset steady export demand holding PNW and Gulf HRS export basis steady week-over-week.
- On August 26, USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 96% complete compared to 100% last year and the 5-year average of 99%. U.S. spring wheat harvest is 38% complete compared to 75% last year and the 5-year average of 65%. USDA reported 69% of U.S. spring wheat in good to excellent condition, compared to last week’s 70%.
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Commercial Sales
- Net U.S. wheat sales as of August 22 of 661,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2019/20 were 11% higher than last week’s 595,000 MT and in line with trade expectations of 250,000 to 700,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales of 11.1 million metric tons (MMT) are 24% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA currently forecasts 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports will total 26.5 MMT, 4% more than 2018/19, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
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- For the week ending August 27, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported heavy rainfall and cooler temperatures across the Southern and Central Plains. Areas under abnormal dryness and moderate drought spread in southwestern Kansas. Looking ahead, heavy precipitation is expected in parts of Kansas and below-normal temperatures are expected across the Southern, Central and Northern Plains.
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- As of August 24, Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture reported the country’s total grain harvest at 52% complete at 76.6 MMT compared to 74.1 MMT this time last year. USDA estimates Russian wheat production will total 73.0 MMT in 2019. Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates the country’s 2019 wheat harvest now totals 57.0 MMT.
- According to Reuters, as of August 27, European Union (EU) soft (non-durum) wheat exports are 6% ahead of last year’s pace at 2.81 MMT. By August 27, French soft wheat exports totaled 1.3 MMT.
- On August 28, Statistics Canada (StatsCan) estimated total 2019/20 Canadian wheat production at 31.2 MMT, 3% lower than 2018/19 levels. Canadian durum production is expected to fall 23% year-over-year to 4.42 MMT. StatsCan estimates Canadian spring wheat production will increase 5% from last year to 25.1 MMT. Canadian winter wheat production is expected to fall 31% from 2018 levels to 1.72 MMT.
- Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture proposed traders increase the volume of Ukrainian wheat available for exports to 19.0 MMT in 2019/20 compared to 16.0 MMT in 2018/19, a 19% increase year-over-year, if realized.
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Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index rose 4% from last week to end at 2,277
- The U.S. dollar Index climbed from last week’s 97.64 to close at 98.47.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates