China’s Revision of Tariff Quota Rules to Open Export Opportunities for US Wheat
S&P Global – 10/17/2019
US Wheat Associates said late Wednesday that the recently modified tariff rate quota rules by China for wheat, among other grains, has left US farmers optimistic of the opportunity to supply wheat to the Asian country. The tariff rate quota changes and the need for quality wheat supplies may also make China a significant wheat importer in 2020, the US Wheat Associates said in a report released late Wednesday. Upon entry to the World Trade Organization in 2001, China had established a 9.64 million mt tariff rate quota for wheat, but the annual quantity was never completely filled despite conducive world wheat prices and market conditions. The US had moved WTO against China stating that the latter was administering the tariff rate quota of grains, including wheat, in a manner that limited opportunities for US farmers to export competitively-priced and high-quality grains to customers in China.
Dryness Dents Argentine Wheat, While Rains in Eastern Corn Belt Speed Sowing
Reuters – 10/17/2019
Rains in Argentina have not been strong enough to help wheat fields left panting for moisture after weeks of dryness, while showers in the eastern farm belt have helped speed corn planting, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday. Potential wheat yield losses are estimated at up to 40% in southern Cordoba, eastern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires province, the exchange said in a report. Those areas got less that 20 mm (0.8 inch) of rain on average during the week.”The situation could worsen if dryness continues,” it said…Business-friendly President Mauricio Macri, who won office in 2015 with strong support from farmers, is expected to lose his bid for a second term. Front-runner Alberto Fernandez favors more government intervention in the economy and is expected by industry leaders to increase grains export taxes.
Trade Deal Matters For State’s Farmers, Ranchers
Bozeman Daily Chronicle – 10/16/2019
As United States senator from Montana, and as a rancher from Miles City serving as the president of the Montana Stockgrowers Association, we took a major step forward last week for Montana ag. Together, we worked to accomplish a historic trade deal between the U.S. and Japan — one that will benefit Montana’s farmers and ranchers for generations to come. Farming and ranching is tough enough as it is. This industry isn’t for the faint of heart and making a profit only gets harder if access to critical export markets is restricted and our foreign competitors are given an advantage…Japan buys close to 30% of the roughly 200 million bushels of hard red winter, hard red spring and durum wheat produced annually across Big Sky Country. This makes Japan our number one wheat export market. If this trade deal had not been finalized, our wheat farmers would had expected their market share of wheat sales to plummet $150 million annually.
Spring Wheat Rally Unlikely to be Short-Lived
The Western Producer – 10/17/2019
Poor harvest conditions in Western Canada and the northern Plains of the United States have led to a spring wheat price rally and there is likely more to come, says an analyst. The December futures spread between Minneapolis and Kansas wheat was about $1.25 per bushel as of late last week.
That is well above the typical spread of 35 to 50 cents per bu. Rain and snowfall in September and October caused serious downgrading of the spring wheat crop. “There is a significant portion that’s going to be on the lower quality spectrum with some of it grading feed,” said Bruce Burnett, analyst with MarketsFarm. He said the Minneapolis/Kansas December futures spread reached $1.50 per bushel about a month ago. “You can probably see it retest that level,” he said. The only thing holding spring wheat prices back is the overall bearish outlook for wheat in general. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting 765 million tonnes of global production, which is larger than either of the last two years.
Some Spring Wheat Still in Fields as Fall Harvests Proceed Slower Than Average
BakingBusiness – 10/17/2019
As the 2019 spring wheat harvest lumbered to a close, the corn and soybean harvests were about a quarter completed and progressing behind the normal pace. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its weekly Crop Progress report issued Oct. 15 indicated the spring wheat harvest in the six primary production states was 94% completed by Oct. 13. Having advanced a mere three percentage points from the previous week, the harvest remained well behind last year, when combining was completed by Sept. 23, and behind 100% as the recent five-year average for the date. The delays in spring wheat harvest can be traced to a wet spring and wet fall in many spring wheat-growing areas of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest areas. Winter 2019 brought elevated snowfall totals that led to heightened spring runoff that forced many creeks and rivers out of their banks. South Dakota was particularly affected by high waters that spilled over banks and in some cases deposited huge chunks of ice in farmers’ fields. Livestock, fences and farm equipment were damaged or destroyed in some cases.
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