November 1, 2019
- Despite end-of-week strength in all wheat futures contracts, week-over-week futures contract changes were mixed. Technical selling pressured soft red winter (SRW) and hard red spring (HRS) futures prices week-over-week. SRW December futures fell 2 cents to close at $5.16/bu. HRS December futures lost 5 cents to end at $5.31/bu. Hard red winter (HRW) December futures gained 3 cents to close at $4.26/bu. CBOT December corn futures added 2 cents to close at $3.89/bu. CBOT January soybean futures gained 2 cents to close at $9.36/bu.
- Minimal farmer and elevator selling supported HRS export basis out of the Great Lakes, Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) for November and December deliveries. Minimal farmer selling also supported HRW export basis out of the Gulf for nearby and deferred deliveries. SRW export basis for November delivery came up week-over-week on tight ending stocks.
- On Oct. 28, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting at 85% complete compared to 77% last year and the 5-year average of 82%.
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Commercial Sales
- New U.S. wheat commercial export sales of 494,000 metric tons (MT) were 88% higher than last week’s 262,000 MT and on the high end of trade expectations of 200,000 to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales of 14.6 MMT are 100% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA forecasts 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports will total 25.9 MMT, 1% more than 2018/19, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
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- Moderate precipitation relieved areas under severe and moderate drought in SRW producing regions in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Looking ahead, heavy precipitation is expected across the Northern Plains and parts of the South and Southeast. Slight precipitation is expected to spread from northeastern Texas through the central Plains to the upper Midwest.
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- According to Reuters, as of Oct. 27, European Union (EU) soft (non-durum) wheat exports totaled 8.55 MMT, 50% higher than this time last year. USDA expects total EU wheat exports will reach 28.0 MMT in 2019/20, up 17% year-over-year following the region’s drought in 2018/19.
- As of Oct. 28, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, Russian farmers have harvested 77.5 MMT of wheat compared to 73.1 MMT the same time last year. The 2019/20 Russian total grains harvest is now 95% complete at 44.4 million hectares (110 million acres).
- By Oct. 30, according to Bolsa de Cereales, only 20% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in good condition and none of the country’s wheat is rated excellent compared to 32% good and 9% excellent this time last year. According to agriculture consultancy Agritrend, the national average Argentinian wheat yield was forecast to hit 3.2 MT/hectare (47.6 bu/acre), but the forecast has since come down to 2.8 MT/hectare (41.7 bu/acre) due to prolonged drought in the country’s central and southern regions.
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Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index fell 4% week-over-week to close at 1,731.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell from last week’s close to 97.83 to end at 97.19.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates