November 15, 2019
- Technical selling, uncertainty about a trade deal with China and lower Black Sea prices offered in a recent GASC tender pressured all U.S. wheat futures prices week-over-week. Soft red winter (SRW) December futures fell 7 cents from last week to end at $5.02/bu and hard red winter (HRW) December futures lost 4 cents to close at $4.17/bu. Hard red spring (HRS) December futures fell 15 cents to close at $5.04/bu. CBOT December corn futures lost 6 cents week-over-week to end at $3.71/bu. CBOT January soybean futures fell 13 cents to close at $9.18/bu.
- Minimal farmer selling supported Gulf HRS export basis for December and January deliveries. A slight increase in farmer selling due to higher futures values at the beginning of the week pressured Gulf HRW export basis. Tight exportable supplies supported SRW export basis for nearby and deferred deliveries.
- On Nov. 12, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting at 92% complete compared to 88% last year and the 5-year average of 92%.
- New U.S. wheat commercial sales of 239,000 metric tons (MT) were 34% lower than last week’s 360,000 MT and in line with trade expectations of 200,000 to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales of 15.2 million metric tons (MMT) are 7% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA forecasts 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports will total 25.9 MMT, 1% more than 2018/19, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- The Nov. 12 Drought Monitor reported record-breaking cold temperatures and beneficial precipitation across the Midwest which alleviated moderate drought and abnormal dryness in Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky. Abnormal dryness spread in central Kansas and areas under moderate and severe drought spread across the state’s southwest region. Looking ahead, warmer temperatures are expected across most of the country.
- SovEcon, a Russian agriculture consultancy, expects Russia’s winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2020 to reach a record 16.7 million hectares (41.2 million acres), up 6% from the 15.8 million hectares (39.0 million acres) sewn in 2018.
- On Nov. 13, French agricultural office, FranceAgriMer, raised its estimate of French soft (non-durum) wheat exports from 11.7 MMT in October to 12.0 MMT. If realized, France’s soft wheat exports outside the European Union would be 24% higher than 2018/19 levels.
- By Nov. 13, according to Bolsa de Cereales, only 10% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in good to excellent condition compared to 41% this time last year. Only 0.40% of the country’s wheat crop is in excellent condition compared to 9% last year. The Argentinian wheat harvest is now 13% complete compared to 16% last year and the 5-year average of 11%.
- According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, as of Nov. 14, Ukraine’s winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2020 now totals 5.9 million hectares (14.6 million acres), 3% lower than the 6.1 million hectares (15.1 million acres) sewn this time last year. According to state forecasters, the lack of beneficial precipitation might have contributed to the reduction in winter wheat planted area year-over-year.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index fell slightly below last week’s close to end at 1,364.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell from last week’s 98.35 to close at 97.99.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates