December 6, 2019
- Technical selling and weak export sales pressured all wheat futures contracts week-over-week. Soft red winter (SRW) March futures fell 17 cents to close at $5.28/bu. Hard red winter (HRW) March futures fell 16 cents to end at $4.39/bu. Hard red spring (HRS) March futures dropped 2 cents to close at $5.12/bu. CBOT March corn futures lost 4 cents to end at $3.82/bu. CBOT March soybean futures gained 12 cents to close at $9.18/bu.
- Increased farmer selling, reduced export demand and cheaper rail rates pressured HRW export basis out of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Gulf this week. Minimal farmer selling kept PNW and Gulf export basis steady and high for December deliveries.
- On Nov. 25, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting 100% complete. Total U.S. winter wheat is 87% emerged compared to 85% last year and the 5-year average of 90%. USDA reported 52% of total U.S. winter wheat in good to excellent condition, slightly below last year’s 55%.
- New U.S. wheat commercial sales of 228,000 metric tons (MT) were 63% lower than last week’s 613,000 MT and below trade expectations of 300,000 MT to 700,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales of 16.5 million metric tons (MMT) are 5% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA forecasts 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports will total 29.5 MMT, 1% more than 2018/19, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- The Dec. 3 Drought Monitor reported the expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in southwest and central Kansas. Heavy snow, cold temperatures and strong winds impacted the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Looking ahead, cold, dry conditions are expected across the Northern and Southern Plains.
- According to Reuters, as of Nov. 29, winter wheat planted area in France and the United Kingdom is expected to fall year-over-year on overly wet autumn field conditions.
- On Dec. 4, the Iraqi Grain Board said it plans to purchase 750,000 MT of wheat in 2020 from Canada, the U.S. and Australia to blend with domestic production. According to Reuters, nationwide protests have not disrupted grain shipments into Iraq.
- As of Dec. 5, according to Bolsa de Cereales, only 4% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in good condition and none of the crop is in excellent condition compared to 31% in good condition and 5% in excellent condition this time last year. The Argentinian wheat harvest is now 46% complete compared to 44% last year and the 5-year average of 38%.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index increased slightly over last week to end at 1,575.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell from last week’s 98.27 to end at 97.69.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates