- Technical selling pressured all wheat futures prices week-over-week. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures dropped 31 cents to end at $5.44/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures fell 29 cents to close at $4.75/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures lost 21 cents to end at $5.30/bu. CBOT corn futures fell 13 cents to close at $3.65/bu. CBOT January soybean futures lost 41 cents to end at $10.06/bu.
- Extremely limited elevation capacity and significantly higher secondary rail rates supported export basis values for all classes of wheat out of the Great Lakes, Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) for November and December deliveries.
- The 2020 HRS harvest is all but complete with less than 4% of the crop remaining, well ahead of last year’s pace. The 2020 northern durum harvest is 91% complete in North Dakota and 85% finished in Montana.
- According to USDA, U.S. farmers have now planted 20% of the total intended winter wheat area for harvest in 2021, 2 points ahead of this time last year and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average.
- This week’s commercial sales of 351,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2020, as of Sept. 17, were up 5% from last week’s 336,000 MT and within trade expectations of 250,000 MT to 600,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales now total 13.5 million metric tons (MMT), 7% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA expects the United States will export 26.5 MMT in 2020/21, up 1% from last year, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- This week, extreme drought spread in eastern Washington and the Nebraska Panhandle. Much of the High and Northern Plains are now abnormally to extremely dry. Looking ahead, dry windy conditions are expected to advance the wheat harvest across the Northern Plains and scattered rain is expected across the Southern Plains which could benefit early winter wheat development.
- According to Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture, farmers have now harvested 84.1 MMT of wheat or 94% of the total expected area. As of Sept. 23, producers have sown 10.5 million hectares (25.9 million acres) of winter grains or 54% of the total intended area for harvest in 2021. Minimal precipitation in the country’s southern region could challenge early wheat development.
- Ukrainian state forecasters said on Sept. 23 that only 10% to 15% of Ukraine’s arable land was suitable for planting winter crops, including wheat, due to extreme drought. However, beneficial precipitation is expected over the next few days which could help the country’s farmers advance their winter wheat sowing campaign for harvest in 2021.
- According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), Argentina’s wheat crop continues to suffer from persistent dryness. In the country’s northern region, “harvest expectations are increasingly compromised with no chance of recovery due to extreme drought,” said BAGE on Sept. 24.
- Dry weather over the past two weeks helped accelerate the United Kingdom’s (UK) 2020 wheat harvest. Official data showed that farmers have harvested 98% of the intended area as of Sept. 25. However, quality concerns persist following an overly wet fall. UK wheat production is expected to total 9.2 MMT, significantly less than last year’s bumper crop of 16.2 MMT.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials like grains, coal and iron ore jumped a staggering 24% on the week to close at 1,605.
- The U.S. Dollar Index climbed from last week’s 92.93 to end at 94.61.