- All wheat futures prices fell week-over-week due to beneficial precipitation in the Southern Plains, Russia and Argentina (see below). CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures fell 34 cents to end at $5.98/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures lost 28 cents to close at $5.41/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures fell 25 cents to trade at $5.52/bu. CBOT corn futures lost 21 cents to end at $3.98/bu. CBOT January soybean futures fell 25 cents to close at $10.56.bu.
- Gulf and Pacific Northwest HRS and HRW export basis values remained steady and high for nearby and deferred deliveries on extremely limited export elevation capacity. Gulf SRW export basis and PNW soft white (SW) export prices for January delivery increased for nearby and deferred deliveries.
- According to USDA, U.S. farmers have now planted 85% of the total intended winter wheat area for harvest in 2021, up 8 points on the week. That is 2 points ahead of this time last year and 5 points ahead of the 5-year average. As of Oct. 26, 62% of the country’s wheat has emerged, led by Colorado at 78% and Kansas by 70%.
- To read more about U.S. winter wheat planting for harvest next year, click here.
Commercial Sales
- This week’s commercial sales of 743,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2020/21, as of Oct. 22, were almost double last week’s 367,000 MT and above trade expectations of 200,000 MT to 700,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales now total 16.2 million metric tons (MMT), 11% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA expects the United States will export 26.5 MMT in 2020/21, up 1% from last year, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- Beneficial snow alleviated dryness in western and southern Montana, southeastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Moderate to heavy rain fell from western Texas to eastern Kansas, benefiting dry winter wheat areas along the way. Looking ahead, more precipitation is expected across the Southern Plains while warm, dry weather is forecast across the Northern Plains.
- FranceAgriMer, France’s farm office, showed 66% of the country’s soft (non-durum) wheat is now planted for harvest next year, up 21 points from last week and in line with the 5-year average. Dry sowing conditions compared to last year are expected to boost France’s soft wheat planted area to 5.0 million hectares (12.3 million acres).
- Russian winter wheat conditions improved this week as beneficial precipitation fell in the country’s southern regions. “Weather conditions are improving gradually,” said SovEcon, a Russian agriculture consultancy. Strong precipitation fell in Russia’s southern, central and Volga regions last week. “The temperature forecast remains very friendly for farmers,” added SovEcon, “winter wheat has more precious time to germinate before winter.” U.S. grain traders believe recent precipitation, warm weather in the coming days and strong market prices could boost Russian winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2021 as much as 15% over last year.
- As of Oct. 28, Ukrainian farmers have planted 5.50 million hectares (13.6 million acres) of winter wheat for harvest in 2021, or 91% of the total intended planted area.
- According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), recent precipitation gave the country’s wheat crop a final yield boost before the 2020/21 harvest. The wheat harvest is now 6% complete with most of Argentina’s progress focused in in the north. So far, the average yield in the north is 12.2 bu/acre (0.82 MT/ha), well below the expected final average of 42.8 bu/acre (2.88 MT/ha). USDA now expects Argentinian wheat production will fall to 17.4 MMT in 2020/21, 8% below the agency’s Oct. 9 forecast of 19.0 MMT on persistent drought.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials like grains, coal and iron ore fell 8% to end at 1,297.
- The U.S. Dollar Index jumped from last week’s 92.76 to close at 94.02.