- Broader strength in the U.S. grains complex on a weaker U.S. dollar (see below) supported all wheat futures prices week-over-week. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures increased 3 cents on the week to end at $6.02/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures added 14 cents to close at $5.55/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures gained 5 cents to end at $5.57/bu. CBOT corn futures added 8 cents to close at $4.07/bu. CBOT January soybean futures jumped 45 cents to end at $11.01/bu.
- Limited elevation capacity supported Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRS export basis for December delivery. Gulf and PNW HRW export basis remained steady and high week-over-week for nearby and deferred deliveries.
- According to USDA, U.S. farmers have now planted 89% of the total intended winter wheat area for harvest in 2021, up 4 points on the week. That is 1 point ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. As of Nov. 2, 71% of the country’s winter wheat has emerged, led by Colorado and Nebraska at 89%.
- This week’s commercial sales of 597,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2020/21, as of Oct. 29, were down 20% from last week’s 743,000 MT but in line with trade expectations of 200,000 MT to 700,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales now total 16.8 million metric tons (MMT), 12% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA expects the United States will export 26.5 MMT in 2020/21, up 1% from last year, if realized.
- Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.
- This week, beneficial precipitation alleviated dryness in southern Kansas and northern and central Oklahoma. However, extreme dryness persists in eastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas, the Nebraska Panhandle, eastern Wyoming and across the Northern Plains. Looking ahead, dry windy weather is expected across the Southern Plains and moderate to heavy snow across the Northern Plains.
- APK-Inform, a Ukrainian agriculture consultancy, pegged Ukraine’s winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2021 at 5.65 million hectares (13.96 million acres), covering 92 percent of the expected area.
- FranceAgriMer, France’s agriculture office, reported the country’s winter wheat farmers made considerable progress last week, 66% of France’s soft (non-durum) wheat is now in the ground, up from last week’s 45% and in line with the five-year average.
- China’s National Grain Trade Center reported selling 2.69 MMT of wheat from Chinese state reserves in the last week of October at an average price of $352/MT. China also published its minimum domestic purchase price for wheat in the 2021 marketing year at $338/MT, up 1% from last year. China is the world’s largest wheat producer and consumer.
- Australia’s wheat crop has rebounded following three years of extended drought conditions. USDA now expects Australian wheat production in 2020/21 will reach 28.5 MMT, up 87% on the year. IKON Commodities, an Australian agriculture consultancy, estimates Australia’s 2020/21 wheat harvest will reach 32.0 MMT. The price of Australian wheat offered to Asian markets fell below Black Sea prices for the first time in four years. According to a Singapore-based trader, Australian premium white (APW) was quoted at $275/MT C&F (FOB and freight) to Southeast Asia compared to Black Sea wheat at $285/MT.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials like grains, coal and iron ore fell 7% from last week’s 1,283 to end at 1,194.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell nearly 2% on the week to close at 92.27.