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U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report

U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report

Due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday next week, there will be no Price Report on Friday, November 27. The USW Price Report will return on Friday, December 4.
November 20, 2020
Read the full report as a PDF

  • Technical selling ahead of the December 2020 and March 2021 futures transition pressured all wheat futures prices week-over-week. CBOT March soft red winter (SRW) futures fell 2 cents to end at $5.99/bu. KCBT March hard red winter (HRW) futures lost 1 cent to close at $5.59/bu. MGE March hard red spring (HRS) futures fell 9 cents to end at $5.61/bu. CBOT March corn futures added 9 cents to close at $4.28/bu. CBOT March soybean futures gained 33 cents to end at $11.81/bu.

  • Smooth inland logistics and increased elevation availability for January and February deliveries pressured Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRS and HRW export basis values from last week. PNW soft white (SW) export prices increased for nearby and deferred deliveries on the news that China bought 125,000 MT of SW for delivery in 2020/21. The Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Seaway System will be closed from early January to mid-March 2021.
  • According to USDA, U.S. farmers have now planted 96% of the total intended winter wheat area for harvest in 2021, up 3 points on the week. That is 2 points ahead of this time last year and the 5-year average. As of Nov. 16, 46% of the country’s winter wheat is in good to excellent condition, in line with last week but 5 points behind this time in 2019.

Commercial Sales

  • This week’s commercial sales of 192,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2020/21, a marketing year low, were down 36% from last week’s 300,000 MT and were well below trade expectations of 250,000 MT to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales now total 17.2 million metric tons (MMT), 10% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA expects the United States will export 26.5 MMT of wheat in 2020/21, up 1% from last year, if realized.
  • Click here to view the most recent USW Commercial Sales report.

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • Beneficial precipitation alleviated large areas of dryness in northwestern Montana, but most of the Northern Plains remain abnormally to severely dry. Much of the High and Southern Plains are severely to extremely dry, specifically in the Nebraska Panhandle, western Kansas, eastern Colorado and western Oklahoma. Looking ahead, dry weather is expected to persist across the Northern and Southern Plains.

  • Russian winter grains planting for harvest in 2021 is nearly complete at a record 47.2 million acres (19.1 million hectares), up 6% from last year. Greater planted area could help offset yield challenges as farmers plant winter wheat into overly dry soil. “Despite some improvement in recent weeks, plants are still in a bad shape overall,” said SovEcon, a Russian agriculture consultancy, on Nov. 16. “A lot will depend on how harsh this winter will be and how much precipitation we will see.”
  • According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture, the country’s wheat exports now total 1.93 MMT, 5% ahead of 2019/20 on improved crop conditions following last year’s drought.
  • As of Nov. 16, European Union (EU) and United Kingdom soft (non-durum) wheat exports total 8.50 MMT, down 22% on the year due to reduced production.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 20% complete. BAGE expects Argentina will produce 16.8 MMT of wheat in 2020/21, down 11% on the year due to extreme dryness and frost damage.

Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices

  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials like grains, coal and iron ore closed slightly ahead of last week at 1,134.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell from last week’s 92.75 to end at 92.38.