Friday, March 26, 2021
- TAll wheat futures prices fell on the week with favorable growing conditions in the northern hemisphere . CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures fell 15 cents to close at $6.13/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures lost 17 cents to end at $5.68/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures dropped 14 cents to close at $6.13/bu. CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents to end at $5.52/bu. CBOT soybean futures lost 16 cents to close at $14.00/bu.
- A slowdown in export demand and more rain in some growing areas plus a positive outlook for crop development in the northern hemisphere had basis for both the Pacific Northwest and Gulf generally lower.
- This week’s U.S. wheat commercial sales of 344,000 metric tons (MT) were down 12% from last week’s 390,000 MT but within trade expectations of 150,000 MT to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales for delivery in 2020/21 total 24.9 million metric tons (MMT), 1% higher than last year. USDA expects total 2020/21 U.S. wheat exports will reach 26.8 MMT, 2% higher than last year, if realized.
- View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.
- Widespread precipitation was seen across the central and southern Plains and Ohio this week. Steady rainfall is adding to soil moisture in Oklahoma and northern Texas. Parts of Nebraska saw record rainfall for the month of March while Kansas and areas of Colorado saw significant improvement to moisture conditions there. Dry conditions remain persistent in the Dakotas. Northeast Montana saw a slight expansion of severe drought conditions after little snowfall this winter.
- Australian farmers, following their largest ever wheat crop in 2020, are seeing the cost of farm inputs such as fertilizer and machinery climb higher, and supplies may not be available say many growers. Farmers are betting on back-to-back bumper crops. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences predicts wheat production for 2021/22 to be 25.0 MMT, down 25 percent from 2020/21.
- Russia’s complicated export tax is throwing a wrench in traders’ ability to sell Russian wheat for future delivery. The current flat tax will change to a floating tax this summer and will be assessed once cargos sail, not when they are sold, making it risky to book advance sales of Russian wheat. Analysts warn that the uncertainty could lead to a higher risk premium on Russian wheat.
- IKAR, A Russian consultancy forecast Russia’s wheat crop in 2021/22 to be 79.8 MMT compared to 78.0 MMT in 2020/21. Exports are predicted at 39.5 MMT.
- The European Commission forecast production of common wheat in the European Union at 126.7 MMT for 2021/22 compared to 117.1 MMT in 2020/21. The Commission expects exports to reach 30.0 MMT.
- FranceAgriMer estimates that France’s soft wheat crop is 87 percent rated good or excellent. The updated rating is a decline from the previous week but an improvement to the 63 percent good or excellent rating reported last year.
- An executive with COFCO, China’s state affiliated trading company, this week said that French wheat would be more competitive in the Chinese market if it were higher quality wheat , reported Reuters. The lower-protein wheat commonly grown in France is similar to domestic Chinese wheat. France sold a record amount of wheat to China in 2020, 2.5 MMT.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) , an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, dropped nearly 5 percent on the week to end at 2,172.
- The U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 91.93 to close at 92.76.
Source: US Wheat Associates