- Wheat futures ended mixed this week after several days of technical selling. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) May futures lost 7 cents to end at $6.53/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures prices fell 7 cents to close at $6.26/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures prices gained 6 cents to end at$6.45/bu. CBOT corn futures fell 2 cents to end at $5.45/bu. CBOT soybean futures added 26 cents to close at $14.30/bu.
- Reduced export demand following higher ocean freight rates pressured Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRS and HRW export basis and Gulf HRS and SRW export basis for April and May deliveries.
- The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Portland and Walla Walla districts will close all Corps navigation locks on the Columbia and Snake rivers between March 6 and 28 for regularly-scheduled annual inspections, preventative maintenance and repairs. Grain traders are prepared for these annual closings that should not disrupt the Pacific Northwest wheat supply chain.
Commercial Sales
- This week’s commercial sales of 219,000 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2020/21 were up 31% from last week’s 168,000 MT and in line with trade expectations of 100,000 MT to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date sales of 23.8 million metric tons (MMT) are 3% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA forecasts total U.S. wheat exports will reach 26.8 MMT in 2020/21, 2% ahead of last year, if realized.
- View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.
U.S. Drought Monitor
- This week, beneficial precipitation alleviated severe dryness in eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming. However, severe to exceptional drought continues to plague winter wheat-producing regions across the Great Plains. Looking ahead, light to moderate precipitation is expected across the Southern Plains.
- Taras Vysotskiy, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister in charge of agriculture, expects record wheat production in 2021 on favorable weather forecasts and mild winter conditions. Ukraine is expected to export up to 22.0 MMT of wheat in 2021, up 26% from last year, if realized.
- According to French farm office FranceAgriMer, winter wheat conditions in France improved to 88% good to excellent by Feb. 28, up one point on the week and significantly higher than last year’s 64% rating, despite warm, dry conditions.
- On March 5, the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted global wheat production in 2021 would reach a record 780 MMT on a return to trendline production in the European Union (EU).
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index jumped 5% from last week to close at 1,779.
- U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 90.88 to end at 91.94.
Sourc: US Wheat associates