U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report

• All wheat futures prices were up for a second week in a row. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures rose 14 cents to close at $6.52/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were up 23 cents to end at $6.09/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures gained 10 cents to close at $6.64/bu. CBOT corn futures jumped 26 cents to end at $5.85/bu. CBOT soybean futures gained 31 cents to close at $14.33/bu.

• Increased concern over dryness in key growing areas coupled with cold weather in the Midwest will rally export basis if conditions stay the same. In the near term, the supply of exportable row crops is weakening basis.
• USDA reported total U.S. winter wheat conditions unchanged week-on-week. Winter wheat reported as good or excellent was 53 percent compared, the same as last week. However, dry weather is creating some anxiety among farmers, while the cold weather forecast in the next week is also of concern. As of April 12, farmers had planted 11 percent of the country’s total intended spring wheat area, up from last year’s 5% and well ahead of the 5-year average of 6%.

Commercial Sales

• This week’s U.S. wheat commercial sales of 56,600 metric tons (MT) were down 31% from last week’s 82,000 MT and in line with trade expectations of 50,000 MT to 200,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales for delivery in 2020/21 total 25.1 million metric tons (MMT), 1% lower than last year.  USDA expects total 2020/21 U.S. wheat exports will reach 26.8 MMT, 2% higher than last year, if realized.
• Net Sales of new crop wheat were 274,400 metric tons (MT) for delivery in 2021/22.
• View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.

U.S. Drought Monitor

• Drought conditions in the Dakota’s worsened over the week despite widespread precipitation and cooler than average temperatures. However, some eastern North and South Dakota areas and western Minnesota got enough rain to improve conditions there. In much of Texas and Oklahoma, warm, dry weather increased long-term moisture deficits and further dried out soils. Dry conditions expanded in the western U.S., with drought conditions reported to worsen in all states. Only north-central Wyoming and southern Montana saw relief following snowfall last week.

• In a statement attributed to two anonymous sources, Reuters reported China may use up to 40.0 MMT of wheat for feed in the 2020/21 crop year displacing corn and soymeal in animal feed. Corn carries a premium to wheat, leading many Chinese feed producers to look for cheaper grain as the country attempts to build back the pig herd culled by African swine fever. Wheat, a high protein grain, is also displacing some soymeal, the main protein source in animal feed.
• France’s farm office FranceAgriMer said this week that it is too soon to estimate the impact of a severe freeze event on grain crops. Temperatures were below zero (32 degrees Fahrenheit) for several nights. Areas in central and southern France were primarily affected.
• SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop by 1.4 MMT to 80.7 MMT on improved crop conditions in the south. The head of SovEcon noted that “wheat entered last winter in the worst shape in a decade.” However, healthy precipitation led to a dramatic improvement in recent months.