Friday, May 21, 2021
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- All futures prices closed lower for the week. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures shed 53 cents to close at $6.74/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were down 27 cents to end at $6.24/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures dropped 45 cents to close at $7.00/bu. CBOT corn futures dropped 26 cents to end at $6.59/bu. CBOT soybean futures shed 77 cents to close at $15.26/bu.
- Gulf basis was higher this week as old crop stocks remain tight, and given dry conditions, farmers are unwilling to forward contract too much new crop wheat sales. The PNW basis was lower due to light export demand limiting the need to draw wheat from farmers.
- On May 17 USDA reported U.S. winter wheat conditions at 48% good to excellent, dropping one point from last week. The USDA also reported 53% of the winter wheat crop headed. The annual Hard Red Winter Tour wrapped up on May 20. Scouts participating in the tour reported record yield potential for the Kansas crop. The U.S. spring wheat crop is 85% planted, far ahead of last year on this date. The spring wheat crop is 47% emerged. The latest USW Harvest Report can be found here.
- This week’s commercial sales for marketing year 2020/21 were up significantly from last week to 121,000 metric tons (MT), in line with trade expectations of 75,000 MT to 150,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales for delivery in 2020/21 total 25.6 million metric tons (MMT), 3% lower than last year. USDA expects the total 2020/21 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.2 MMT even with last year if realized.
- This week’s commercial sales for delivery in 2021/22 totaled 317,700 MT. Total U.S. wheat sales to date for 2021/22 are 3.57 MMT.
- View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.
- Widespread rainfall this week improved conditions in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. The upper plains, including the Dakotas, experienced warmer than normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation early in the week, further degrading dry conditions. The Pacific Northwest soft white wheat production region remains dry with above-normal temperatures.
- Germany’s 2021 wheat crop is expected to increase to around 22.66 MMT, said a German association of farm cooperatives. The group previously predicted the crop to be 22.63 MMT. The larger forecast is based on an increase in sown area reported Reuters. Germany is the second-largest wheat producer in the EU.
- Coceral, a French grain trade association, raised its forecast for the European Union’s soft (non-durum) wheat production, citing excellent yield prospects in the Balkans and Spain. Soft wheat production in the EU is projected at 130.9 MMT, 12% over last year’s 118.7 MMT crop.
- A strike by port workers in Argentina left grain shipments paralyzed this week. Port workers are demanding to be vaccinated against COVID-19. The strike halted work on Wednesday and Thursday. Labor groups threatened another walkout next week if the government and union leaders cannot reach an agreement.
- APK-Inform, a Ukrainian wheat analyst, left its grain forecast for Ukraine’s 2021 grain harvest unchanged. APK-Inform forecasts the wheat harvest to reach 27.6 MMT; if realized, Ukraine’s 2021 wheat harvest would increase 11% compared to 2020.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, dropped 8% on the week to end at 2,824.
- The U.S. Dollar Index decreased slightly from last week’s 90.31 to close at 90.01.