- Futures prices were mixed for the week. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures shed 11 cents to close at $6.63/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were also down 11 cents to end at $6.13/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures rose 27 cents to close at $7.27/bu. CBOT corn futures dropped 3 cents to end at $6.56/bu. CBOT soybean futures shed 4 cents to close at $15.30/bu.
- Basis in the Gulf reacted to weather this week as HRS basis went up slightly as dry weather continues. However, HRW basis went down slightly as moisture levels have improved. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), basis dropped despite weather concerns. Farmer selling remains light and dry weather is making farmers hesitant to guarantee protein levels.
- On May 17, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat conditions at 47% good to excellent, dropping one point from last week. The USDA also reported 67% of the winter wheat crop headed. The U.S. spring wheat crop is 94% planted, far ahead of last year on this date. The spring wheat crop is 66% emerged. The latest USW Harvest Report can be found here.
Commercial Sales
- This week’s commercial sales for marketing year 2020/21 were down significantly from last week to 29,500 metric tons (MT), below trade expectations of 75,000 MT to 180,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales for delivery in 2020/21 total 25.6 million metric tons (MMT), 4% lower than last year. USDA expects the total 2020/21 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.2 MMT, which, if realized, would be even with the previous year’s total.
- This week’s commercial sales for delivery in 2021/22 totaled 373,800 MT. Total U.S. wheat sales to date for 2021/22 are 3.94 MMT.
- View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.
U.S. Drought Monitor
- This week’s rainfall in Texas improved conditions, but some areas of the state were excessively wet following 8 to 10 inches of rain. The High Plains received between 1.5 to 3 inches of rain in western North Dakota southward to eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas. Reports note that the moisture was quickly absorbed into the dry soil. In eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon, drought conditions expanded.
- Russia’s formula-based grain export tax will be set to $28.10/MT beginning June 2 to June 8, said the agriculture ministry, a sharp decrease from the current $61.00/MT. The tax is determined each week by the agriculture ministry. Corn and barley taxes are set to increase significantly.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global grain production in 2021/22. The IGC noted that high grain prices have led to increases in planting area and a projected 6% increase in output.
- The European Commission increased its forecast for common wheat in the European Union for 2021/22 to 126.2 MMT, nearly a 2.0 MMT increase from last month. MARS, the EU crop monitoring service, also raised the yield forecast by 3.6% compared to 2020/21. Soft wheat yields for the 2021/22 harvest are forecast at 5.91 tons per hectare (t/ha).
- Near-perfect growing conditions in Australia boosted potential for a second consecutive bumper wheat harvest this season. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicts an 80% chance of above-average rainfall this growing season. Australia produced 33.0 MMT of wheat in 2020/21. The latest USDA WASDE report forecasts Australia to produce 27.0 MMT of wheat in 2021/22.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, dropped 4% on the week to end at 2,688.
- The U.S. Dollar Index increased slightly from last week’s 90.01 to close at 90.02.
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