- Futures prices were mixed this week. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures shed 18 cents to close at $6.62/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were down 32 cents to end at $6.06/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures gained 2 cents to close at $7.62/bu. CBOT corn futures lost 29 cents to end at $6.55/bu. CBOT soybean futures shed $1.12 cents to close at $13.96/bu.
- Basis in both the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Gulf were lower this week. Dry weather is making farmers cautious to sell as they wait to see how conditions will affect yields and quality. Slow export pace has also moved basis prices lower.
- On June 14, USDA reported overall U.S. winter wheat conditions at 50% good or excellent, unchanged from last week. The USDA also reported 92% of the winter wheat crop headed, close to the 5-year average. The U.S. spring wheat crop condition is rated 41% good or excellent while 96% of the crop is emerged. The latest USW Harvest Report can be found here.
Commercial Sales
- This week’s commercial sales for marketing year 2021/22 were down from last week to 287,100 metric tons (MT), in line with trade expectations of 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales for delivery in 2021/22 total 5.8 MMT, 8% behind last year’s pace. USDA expects the total 2021/22 U.S. wheat exports to reach 24.5 MMT, 9% below last year, if realized.
- View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.
U.S. Drought Monitor
- Dry weather coupled with warm temperatures persisted this week further degrading large parts of the western states including eastern Washington, central Oregon, central and western Wyoming, and parts of Colorado. Areas of western Oklahoma and western Minnesota also saw warm, dry weather degrade soil moisture conditions. Portions of western North Dakota and northeastern Montana received enough rain from several thunderstorms to improve their drought status, however very warm temperatures are leading to the potential loss of surface moisture. The rain, while welcome, comes after weeks of warm and dry conditions leading to a slow improvement in drought conditions for the High Plains states.
- Stratégie Grains raised its forecast for 2021/22 soft wheat exports from the European Union by 1.6 MMT citing “very good competitiveness of Bulgarian and Romanian wheat and, to a lesser extent, Baltic, German, and Polish wheat,” said the France based consultant. Stratégie Grains expects EU soft wheat production to be 131.1 MMT, up from 129.6 MMT in May and they peg soft wheat exports at 28.6 MMT.
- Reuters, after polling 21 analysts, officials and traders, forecasts that combined Black Sea wheat exports (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) for 2021/22 will rise 5% to 66 MMT. Large stockpiles, good crop yields and increased global demand are driving the forecasted increase especially as rising corn prices cause some countries to feed more wheat.
- APK-Inform, a Ukraine based analyst, reduced its forecast for Ukraine’s 2021 wheat crop by 358 TMT to 27.2 MMT. The consultancy left export forecasts unchanged at 19.75 MMT.
- Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved the import of 3.0 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 as they try to build up the country’s strategic stocks, reported local media. Pakistan farmers are expected to see a 2% increase in production in 2021/22, harvesting 26.4 MMT of domestic wheat.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, gained 22% on the week to end at 3,267.
- The U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 90.59 to close at 92.20.