- All futures prices were down this week as harvest accelerated in some states and welcome rain fell in the Northern Plains states. CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures shed 37 cents to close at $6.08/bu. KCBT hard red winter (HRW) futures were down 12 cents to end at $5.99/bu. MGE hard red spring (HRS) futures lost 50 cents to close at $8.13/bu. CBOT corn futures fell 68 cents to end at $6.29/bu. CBOT soybean futures shed 47 cents to close at $14.04/bu.
- Soft white (SW) basis softened in the Pacific Northwest as grain trader’s confidence in the crop grew, but demand remained light. Basis rose for hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) in the PNW as supply remained tight and farmer selling was slow. In the Gulf, basis was also up as farmer selling remained light due to lower futures prices.
- States growing hard red winter (HRW) are harvesting with some delays from rain in the Southern Plains. For the fourth week in a row, no offers were made for HRW 12.5% protein exported from the Gulf. As harvest advances and more protein content is known, offers for higher protein HRW may change.
- New crop soft white (SW) proteins remain unclear at this time. Hot and dry conditions are raising concerns making grain traders reluctant to guarantee maximum proteins. For the fourth week in a row, offers for SW 9.5% max protein remain limited. Please contact your supplier for more information.
- On July 6, USDA reported overall U.S. winter wheat conditions at 47% good to excellent, dropping one point from last week’s 48%. The USDA also reported 45% of the winter wheat crop harvested, below the 5-year average of 53%. The U.S. spring wheat crop conditions are rated 20% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. The USDA also reported 69% of the U.S. spring wheat crop headed, above the 5-year average of 62%. The latest USW Harvest Report can be found here.
- This week’s U.S. wheat commercial sales of 290,800 metric tons (MT) were up 29% from last week’s 226,300 MT and on the low end of trade expectations of 200,000 MT to 450,000 MT. Marketing year-to-date commercial sales for delivery in 2021/22 total 6.6 million metric tons (MMT), 11% lower than last year. USDA expects total 2021/22 U.S. wheat exports will reach 24.5 MMT, 9% lower than last year, if realized.
- View the most recent USW Commercial Sales report here.
- Another week of hot, dry weather in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Northern Plains led to an expansion of drought conditions for those areas. At the same time, wet weather in the Midwest left much of the region drought-free except for Minnesota. In the Plains states, parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas, and Nebraska received rain, improving conditions, but areas of drought expanded in places that missed out on the rain. The USDA reported 92% of South Dakota and 76% of North Dakota topsoil moisture short to very short, leading to stunted crop growth. In the northwest, a week of exceptionally hot weather continued to dry out soil and lower crop conditions. In Washington, 84% of topsoil is short or very short of moisture. Idaho and Montana also saw conditions degrade with areas of drought expanded. Montana received less than 25% of average precipitation in June, usually its rainiest month.
- The Parana River, a grains “superhighway” in Argentina, moves around 80% of agricultural goods bound for export to the Port of Rosario on the Atlantic coast. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, the shallow water level could cost grain farmers and exporters $315 million over six months through August. The low water level means that ships are unable to load to capacity. Consequently, Handymax vessels are forced to load 8.0 TMT less than they normally would, while Panamax size vessels are loading 10.0 TMT less.
- Glacier FarmMedia, based in Manitoba, a Canadian province, reports that, while conditions range widely across the Prairies, overall, Canada’s wheat crop may be millions of tons smaller than it appeared a few weeks ago. One wheat farmer noted that “wheat fields are wavier than usual, evidence of uneven growth.” He described wheat plants that are short and rows that are thin with only a main stem, no secondary shoots that add to a decent harvest.
- The Association of German Farmers (DBV) said they expect Germany’s wheat harvest to increase in 2021 as rain helped crops recover from an initially hot and dry summer. The DBV estimates Germany, the EU’s second-largest wheat producer, will harvest around 22.82 MMT of winter wheat in 2021, up five percent compared to last year. Germany’s total wheat harvest is forecast at 23.13 MMT when spring and hard wheat are included, up 4.5% overall.
- Ukraine’s agriculture ministry says it does not plan to impose grain export restrictions in the next two months of the 2021/22 marketing year, which began July 1. The official said that the ministry would determine grain export volumes on August 30. In 2020/21, the ministry imposed a 17.5 MMT limit on wheat exports.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal, and iron ore, increased slightly on the week to end at 3,300.
- The U.S. Dollar Index increased from last week’s 92.18 to close at 92.25.