Betsy Jensen is a Farm Business Management Instructor at Northland Community and Technical College.
Written by Betsy Jensen
I fell down an AI rabbit hole this fall. And I mean artificial intelligence, not the livestock version.
Our college requires us to use Copilot, so I asked for a soybean marketing plan, and the information it gave me was creepy. It listed major buyers, talked about pre and post harvest plans, asked about cost of production, and even said Marshall County Minnesota typically has “volatile basis and unpredictable weather.” I asked two short questions and got significantly more information than I expected.
But then I asked about price targets, and it recommended I sell around $13 to $14. I agree! I should sell my soybeans between $13 and $14. That will cover my cost of production and make everyone on the farm happy. I am not sure how long I can store my beans to wait for beans in the teens, and I don’t think my banker will understand that my AI marketing plan told me to wait. The soybean marketing plan sounded amazing until I asked the price target question.
I always recommend farmers create their own marketing plans and not use the generic ones you might hear from me at meetings, or listed on a university website, and now I can say do not use the one generated by AI. Your marketing plan should reflect your cost of production, your storage capacity and your need for cash flow.
As a special case for 2025, your marketing plan should also reflect your birthday bushels. This summer as I updated balance sheets, many of you still own 2024 crop. Your grain will celebrate a birthday on your farm. I once held barley for 3 years, so I will not judge but make sure to consider your total bushel ownership.
I know AI can make my life easier, somehow, but I will continue to create my own marketing plans. Partly because I am a control maniac, and partly because I do not trust someone that tells me to sell beans in the teens when our current cash price is $9.
My hope for this winter is that I can use AI to convince you guys to make better decisions. I plugged a sample cash flow into Copilot and asked if the farm should spend $100,000 on a tractor, and it told me it was a high risk move and then explained why. It even discussed financial ratios. And it took less than ten seconds for it to answer my question. It took me longer to upload the cash flow and type the question.
When farmers ask me about buying a tractor, I’ll create the cash flow, help you interpret it, tell you it’s a high-risk move, and then you buy it anyway. Maybe if AI and I tell you the same thing, you’ll be more receptive. Maybe AI can more clearly state the risks and rewards.
I have not found the magic solution to creating grain marketing plans and using AI to make business decisions isn’t quite there yet. There are just too many factors for me to plug into AI. Sometimes the gut feeling is one of the best determining factors and AI can’t help with that gut feeling. Farming rarely has clear, black and white decisions, and the best thing we can do is understand the risks.
You and I are not replaceable, yet. Perhaps Copilot can provide another opinion, but ultimately, I am in charge of marketing the bushels and making the decisions. I guess that’s why it is called Copilot and not Autopilot. You are still needed in the cockpit at the controls.
